Chapter 1: Understanding Risks in the Search for Life

As the Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover embarks on its seven-month journey to the Red Planet in search of signs of life, it's crucial to contemplate the nature of risk associated with our quest for extraterrestrial existence.

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket, carrying NASA’s Mars 2020 Perseverance rover, launches from Space Launch Complex 41. Credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky

While I am not an astrobiologist, my work lies at the intersection of groundbreaking discoveries and the responsible development of new technologies. For years, I have concentrated on the complexities of creating advanced technologies, such as nanotechnology and genetic engineering, in a way that benefits society while minimizing risks. These endeavors are often motivated by individuals aiming to make positive changes in the world. However, history has shown that even noble intentions can lead to significant consequences if not paired with a thorough understanding of their societal implications.

Astrobiology, in many ways, occupies a similar ambiguous space. Through collaboration with astrobiologists and stakeholders in this field, it becomes evident that the challenges and rewards encountered in the quest for extraterrestrial life mirror those in other scientific and technological domains. Whether it's gene editing, the vast possibilities of artificial intelligence, or the potential discovery of life beyond Earth, we face uncertain futures that are shaped by societal beliefs and values.

“Just as technological innovation aims to translate creative concepts into marketable products, risk innovation seeks to transform our understanding of risk into practical frameworks and processes.”

This presents a complex scenario where we must weigh the possible advantages of our pursuits against the inherent risks. Conventional risk assessments typically focus on estimating the likelihood of negative outcomes through experimental data or modeling, restricting actions to those with acceptably low risks. However, risk encompasses more than just probabilities.

The type of harm we encounter, its severity, and the individuals affected all influence our risk management strategies. Making decisions about risk is straightforward when one is not personally affected. However, the stakes become much higher when the potential loss is something deeply valued and often immeasurable.

Consider, for example, the loss of opportunity (such as failing to successfully complete a space mission), the loss of hope (which may arise from the catastrophic contamination of celestial bodies), or the loss of agency (being unable to apply one’s expertise to the search for life beyond Earth).

Astrobiology is fraught with such risks, which do not lend themselves well to traditional risk analysis. Fortunately, there are innovative strategies emerging to navigate these challenges, one of which is "risk innovation."

Risk innovation is akin to technological innovation, as it aims to reshape our understanding of risk into frameworks that are beneficial and usable. It generates new insights, knowledge, and capabilities, translating them into tools or practices that safeguard what society values.

Risk innovation encompasses both traditional notions of value, such as public health and environmental sustainability, and more abstract aspects like scientific integrity and discovery. It also facilitates the integration of societal values, including respect, dignity, hope, justice, and security, into scientific discourse.

These societal considerations are increasingly vital in fields like astrobiology, where they can significantly influence future successes or failures. The concept of risk innovation helps us acknowledge and respond to the societal values that impact how we assess risks and benefits.

Recognizing these values can illuminate failure modes that stem more from stakeholder perceptions than from technical system failures. This is just one of several innovative approaches to unconventional risks.

Another strategy is the risk framework established by the International Risk Governance Council, which builds upon traditional risk management approaches that rely on causal relationships and evidence-based strategies. This framework emphasizes the importance of engaging a variety of stakeholders, including the public, in addressing complex challenges.

At the other end of the spectrum is the precautionary principle, often misinterpreted, yet offering a valuable perspective for managing complex and uncertain risks. One interpretation from the UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST) states:

“When human activities may lead to scientifically plausible but uncertain morally unacceptable harm, actions shall be taken to prevent or mitigate that harm.” (UNESCO, 2005)

This formulation underscores the importance of scientific analysis in assessing risks, ensuring that chosen actions align proportionally with the potential harm, and advocating for a participatory decision-making process.

Despite the political debates surrounding the precautionary principle, its underlying philosophy provides a sound approach to managing complex, uncertain, and potentially catastrophic risks before they escalate.

A third framework, known as "responsible innovation," offers another lens through which to view these issues. Although interpretations vary, a foundational model proposed by Stilgoe, Owen, and Macnaghten in 2013 outlines four guiding principles: Anticipation (insight into possible future scenarios), Reflexivity (awareness that perspectives may differ), Inclusion (constructive engagement with stakeholders), and Responsiveness (adapting to stakeholder values and changing circumstances).

The IRGC framework, the precautionary principle, and responsible innovation all offer distinct approaches to risk innovation concepts. Their common thread is recognizing the crucial role of societal input in risk-related decisions, highlighting the dangers of neglecting public perspectives, fears, and aspirations in any enterprise that may impact them.

Engaging with societal values will be essential as we continue our search for extraterrestrial life. Ignoring the priorities of communities affected by astrobiology will likely lead to a tumultuous and unpredictable future for this field.

In our quest for life beyond Earth, embracing innovative methods to evaluate risks and benefits is paramount, as is acknowledging the importance of societal awareness regarding what different groups value. Ultimately, we all aspire to enjoy the benefits of our search for extraterrestrial life without being hindered by poorly informed actions or their repercussions.

In "Science Breaks: Finding Life on Mars," discover the scientific endeavors and technologies that are paving the way for potential life detection on the Red Planet.

"Future Mars Walker Alyssa Carson: Ready For Her Space Odyssey" explores the aspirations of a young astronaut preparing for a future mission to Mars and the implications of human exploration.