The Future of Crypto: Should You Hold or Fold?
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Chapter 1: The Current State of Cryptocurrency
Why are you still invested in crypto? Many are questioning its viability as it seems to be on a downward trajectory.
“This sentiment reflects the views of many who feel the crypto boom is a thing of the past,” said one finance professional I spoke with recently in Times Square.
The reality is that engaging with cryptocurrency often requires revealing your identity to centralized exchanges. Moreover, it is estimated that over 90% of trading volume is artificially inflated by these exchanges. After 14 years, it appears that crypto is primarily used for gambling and scams.
Consider the following points:
- Previous cycles of “innovation” in crypto have mostly turned out to be scams, labeled as “CeDeFi” and “DeFi.”
- The real-world applications of crypto have been overshadowed by the advancements of OpenAI and similar technologies.
- Using cryptocurrencies securely can be cumbersome, suggesting that widespread adoption is unlikely.
- Bitcoin is not a reliable hedge against inflation, having plummeted by 80% during a period of high inflation.
- It has also failed as a store of value, losing significant worth within a year.
- Tether’s dubious practices further undermine Bitcoin's stability.
So, why are you still holding onto your crypto investments?
Section 1.1: Web 3 vs. Dotcom Bubble
Reflecting on history can provide valuable insights. Are we witnessing another dot-com bubble?
Let’s examine some charts:
As you may have noticed, trends in culture, society, and the economy are accelerating. We see fleeting memes that capture attention for only a moment before vanishing. While this rapid pace raises concerns, it doesn’t negate the inherent potential of the technology.
In 2030, we might witness a scenario where the next big crypto craze yields massive returns almost instantaneously.
However, it’s not entirely fair to compare Bitcoin to these trends. How would the dot-com bubble appear if we analyzed it from 1998 to 2023?
In the early days of dot-com, there were many bad actors, leading to rampant speculation. Investors even went so far as to mortgage their homes to invest in tech stocks. So, where do we stand in the timeline of crypto, and what will future regulations look like?
Without proper regulation, the risks escalate. Conversely, implementing regulations could introduce more liquidity into the system, benefiting everyone involved.
This is still the beginning; we are continually uncovering the best applications for this technology. Even Larry Fink of BlackRock envisions a future of complete tokenization. But why?
Section 1.2: The Challenge of Articulating Value
The challenge lies in clearly defining the problem that crypto aims to solve. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, recently noted that explanations surrounding crypto often come across as vague and convoluted.
“Whether it’s Bitcoin or digital currency, nobody has been able to articulate what problem it is actually solving. […] I can send anybody in this room $5 right now using Venmo. […] So what is it that a central bank digital currency can do that Venmo can’t do?”
Despite these critiques, Kashkari also mentioned that there is an infinite amount of cash available at the Federal Reserve.
This leads us to the potential use case for crypto: an international deflationary currency that could provide a hedge against inflation, avoiding the depreciation seen in national currencies.
Is it flawless? Certainly not.
However, it stands out as one of the best options available, boasting minimal third-party control, reduced risk of debasement, and enhanced security, especially in comparison to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Emerging markets frequently experience bubbles; they inevitably burst. Yet, the fundamental promise of the technology remains intact.
Chapter 2: The Case for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Why do many believe Bitcoin is the future? It holds the largest market share and was the first to emerge. However, this alone does not guarantee its longevity compared to other technologies that may provide better solutions in the future.
Bitcoin’s value proposition extends beyond its technology; it aims to address the issues of centralized monetary policy that often disadvantage the public. This adherence to its core principles is arguably more significant than its technological capabilities.
Ethereum, on the other hand, offers decentralized banking solutions that could revolutionize the financial landscape. Unfortunately, trust in decentralized systems often lags behind that of traditional banks and institutions, a cautious approach that was amplified by recent failures like the Terra Luna crash.
Yet, crypto skeptics overlook the imminent digital transformation that is inevitable. Tokenization is on the horizon. Our lives are increasingly digital, and with advancements like Apple VR, it’s clear that we must adapt to this wave of change.
Despite its flaws, Ethereum remains the leading option for decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), gaming, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).
With a robust developer community and a commitment to decentralization, Ethereum stands out. The hype around so-called “ETH killers” often misses the point; the success of a platform lies in its actual usage by the general population, not just its technical performance.
Will Ethereum gain widespread adoption? Only time will tell, but it certainly has the potential to foster innovative applications. The situation resembles Microsoft’s rise in the market 40 years ago; their success was not due to superiority but rather their ability to deliver at scale.
As we look toward the future of Web 3, it may encompass Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold-backed cryptocurrencies, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
In the words of Yuval Noah Harari, one must either adapt to technology or risk becoming irrelevant. This could lead to a world where we have Luddite communities living off the grid while being digitally connected, or a future dominated by centralized and decentralized systems.
The outcome remains uncertain, but the contest for dominance is clear.
Ultimately, you don't have to blindly follow trends; creating value is key. Diversifying a portion of your assets into cryptocurrency can serve as a safeguard against inflation and economic instability.
In the end, the decision is yours to make regarding your values and investments.
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While I’ve always dreamed of being a financial advisor, I must clarify that I am not one. Conduct your own research and don't rely solely on the opinions of strangers on the internet. This article should not be considered investment advice.
Chapter 3: Perspectives on the Future of Crypto
The first video discusses whether crypto is slowly dying and if it's the right time for holders to exit the market.
The second video delves into the reasons behind the current downturn in the crypto market, providing insights that every investor should consider.